Fed Holds Rates Steady: What This Means for Nampa & Caldwell Buyers

The news just broke: The Federal Reserve has voted to keep interest rates unchanged at their meeting today, Wednesday, January 28, 2026.

For weeks, we've heard buyers say, “I’m going to wait until the Fed meeting to see if rates drop.”

Well, the meeting is over. Rates didn’t drop. And if you were waiting for a “flash sale” on mortgages, you might be disappointed.

Here is the reality of what happened today, why mortgage rates didn’t budge, and why the local market in Canyon County isn’t waiting for anyone.

The “No Cut” Decision

The Fed decided to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% - 3.75% today. They cited that while inflation has improved, they want to see more data before cutting again.

What does this mean for you?

• No Drop: If you were hoping for a 5.5% rate today, it didn’t happen.
• The “Price In” Effect: Mortgage lenders had already anticipated this. The current 30-year fixed rate is still hovering in the low 6% range.

Wait… Doesn’t the Fed Set Mortgage Rates?

This is the #1 misconception in real estate. The answer is No.

The Federal Reserve controls the Federal Funds Rate, which is a short-term rate for things like credit cards and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs).

So, who controls mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-Year Treasury Yield. The 10-Year Treasury is driven by two main things:

1. Inflation Expectations: If investors think inflation is going up, mortgage rates go up.
2. Economic Data: Strong jobs reports often push rates higher because they signal a hot economy.

The Local Reality: Canyon County is Heating Up

While Wall Street obsesses over the Fed, buyers in Nampa and Caldwell are moving on actual monthly payments. The latest Q4 stats show a clear trend: The “Wait and See” crowd is missing the boat.

Here is what is happening on the ground right now:

1. Nampa: The “Value Leader”

Nampa continues to offer the best bang for your buck, but prices are ticking up.

• Median Price: ~$449,990 (North Nampa)
• The Trend: Prices are up roughly 7.4% year-over-year. Buyers who waited 12 months for rates to drop are now paying ~$30,000 more for the same house.

2. Caldwell: The Affordable Stronghold

Caldwell remains the most affordable option, but inventory is moving faster than last year.

• Median Price: ~$405,000
• Sales Volume: Closed sales surged nearly 17% in December compared to last year.
• The Warning: With prices hovering around $400k, Caldwell is the “sweet spot” for First Time Buyers. When rates do eventually dip, this is the price point that will see the fiercest bidding wars.

Our Advice? Stop gambling on the Fed. If you find a home in Caldwell or Nampa that fits your budget today, lock it. The risk of paying higher prices this spring is far greater than the reward of a 0.125% rate cut.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Fed & Rates