Jan 2026 Deep Dive: Ada vs. Canyon County 🏙️

Data Source: Intermountain MLS (IMLS) Market Reports, Jan 2026.

The stats for the Ada vs Canyon County housing market January 2026 are in, and they reveal two very different markets operating side-by-side in the Treasure Valley. While one county saw a surge in sales volume, the other remains the undisputed value leader

On one side, we have Ada County, where sales volume jumped 6.8% despite higher prices. On the other side, we have Canyon County, where affordability is king and homes are selling at a steady, predictable pace.

As a local mortgage broker with over 30 years in this valley, I analyzed the specific city-level data to help you decide: Is it worth paying the “Ada Premium,” or does the value in Canyon County win out?

🌲 Ada County: The Growth Engines

Overall, Ada County saw a Median Sales Price of $535,990 (essentially flat year-over-year) but a significant jump in inventory (+23%). However, the “average” price hides the massive differences between neighborhoods.

1. Kuna: The Volume Leader 🏆

Kuna was arguably the busiest spot in the county last month. A staggering 92 homes sold in January alone. Why? Price.

• Median Price: $434,945
• The Draw: Kuna is the last bastion of affordability in Ada County. It is the only major city in the county with a median price consistently under $450k.

2. Star: The New Construction Capital 🏗️

If you want a brand-new home, you are likely looking in Star. Out of 66 homes sold in January, 52 were new construction.

• Median Price: $634,000
• The Trend: Star has solidified itself as a “move-up” market. You pay a premium here ($100k+ more than Kuna), but you are getting a brand-new home on a larger lot.

3. Boise: A Tale of Two Cities

Boise is not one market; it’s several micro-markets.

• North Boise: The “prestige” market remains expensive with a median of $660,000.
• Boise Bench: The “value” market. The median price here was $421,500.

4. Eagle: The Luxury Outlier 🦅

While the rest of the valley focuses on affordability, Eagle is doing its own thing. The median price hit $951,450 in January, with 56 sales. The luxury buyer is active and clearly not as sensitive to interest rates as the entry-level market.

🚜 Canyon County: The Sub-$450k Sweet Spot

Canyon County continues to be the “Value Leader.” The overall median price is $420,000, which is ~$115,000 cheaper than Ada County. But just like Ada, location matters.

1. Nampa NW: The Unicorn (Under $400k) 🦄

Finding a single-family home under $400k is getting harder, but Northwest Nampa delivered.

• Median Price: $396,950
• The Opportunity: This is one of the few areas left in the entire valley where the median price starts with a “3.” If you are budget-conscious, start your search here.

2. Caldwell: Consistency

Caldwell remains incredibly stable. Whether you look at Northwest or Southwest Caldwell, prices are hovering in the low $400s.

• Caldwell NW: $418,990
• Caldwell SW: $406,000

3. Middleton: The “Country” Premium

Middleton is the “Eagle of Canyon County.” It commands a significantly higher price than its neighbors.

• Median Price: $497,951
• Why: Buyers here are paying for space. You are typically getting larger lots and a more rural feel, pushing prices closer to Meridian levels than Nampa levels.

📉 The “Fed vs. Rates” Reality Check

January 2026 gave us a perfect example of why the headlines often confuse homebuyers. You likely saw news that the Federal Reserve held rates steady at their January 28th meeting. But if you were watching mortgage rates, you saw them actually improve slightly.

Here is exactly what happened and why:

1. The Fed “Paused” (But the Market Didn’t)

After cutting rates three times in late 2025, the Fed voted to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% – 3.75% in January. Their reasoning? Inflation is “sticky” around 2.7%, and they want to see more data before cutting again.

Why this didn’t hurt mortgage rates:
The bond market (which sets mortgage rates) had already predicted this pause. In fact, mortgage rates often rise when the economy looks too strong. When the Fed paused, it signaled they are still serious about fighting inflation - and low inflation is the best friend of low mortgage rates.

2. The “Bad News is Good News” Effect

While the Fed was pausing, the economic data started showing cracks. In late January and early February, we saw:

• Jobless Claims Rising: New claims hit 231,000.
• Job Openings Falling: The “JOLTS” report showed openings dropped to 6.5 million.

When the job market weakens, investors get nervous about the stock market and move their money into Bonds for safety. When they buy bonds, mortgage rates go down.

3. The Result: A “Boring” 6% Range

Because of this push-and-pull (Fed holding steady vs. Economy slowing down), mortgage rates found a stable groove in the low 6% range (approx. 6.15%).

Why this is a win for buyers:
Stability is better than volatility. We aren’t seeing the wild 0.5% swings we saw last year. This stability is what gave 1,500+ sellers in Ada County the confidence to list their homes in January, finally giving you more inventory to choose from.

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