National Average Mortgage Rates (as of 12/19/2025)

Here are the national average rates shown in this week's newsletter. Remember, these are national averages - your actual rate depends on your credit, loan program, property type, and daily pricing.

Note: The 10-year Treasury closed around 4.1486% on 12/19/2025, with holiday-driven trading conditions affecting rate movement.

Why the Market Reaction Was Muted

This week was highlighted by two major reports: the jobs data and CPI inflation. The unemployment rate printed at 4.6% (above the 4.4% forecast), which is usually a friendlier signal for rates.
But instead of a big rally, the bond market barely moved.

CPI also came in well below forecasts, but trading stayed cautious due to data-collection caveats and the calendar.
Bottom line: the market isn't ignoring the data - it's just waiting for January when trading volume returns to normal levels.

Why “Holiday Trading” Can Make Rates Feel Random

Late December is famous for “thin trading.” Markets close on Christmas Day, bonds close early on Christmas Eve, and participation can be drastically lower than normal on surrounding days.
When fewer traders are active, rate movement can be more choppy and less logical.

If you've ever tried to drive the Connector at rush hour and wondered why nobody is behaving rationally… it's a little like that. 😄

What This Means for Idaho Buyers & Sellers

For Buyers

• Plan for small rate swings and occasional "why did it move today?" moments through the holidays.
• Get fully pre-approved so you can act when the right home shows up (and not lose it while paperwork is happening).
• If you're under contract, focus on certainty. A good lock strategy beats guessing.

For Sellers

• Affordability still drives demand. Price and presentation matter more when buyers are payment-sensitive.
• Be open to reasonable concessions when needed. It can widen your buyer pool without giving away the farm.
• A clean home and clean terms can beat a "technically higher" offer that feels risky.

Local Guidance: Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Caldwell

📍 Boise

Competition is still real when the right home hits. Being pre-approved and fast matters. If you're shopping, don't wait for "perfect rates" to start learning your numbers.

📍 Meridian

Newer homes can simplify FHA/VA condition questions, but taxes/HOAs can change the payment quickly. Always run the full payment, not just the price.

📍 Nampa

More variety in inventory can help buyers, but appraisal readiness still matters. A strong file and clean documentation keep things smooth.

📍 Caldwell

Buyers looking for value can do well here. If you're using FHA/VA, make sure the property condition supports the loan program.

What to Watch Next

Upcoming releases like GDP, durable goods, industrial production, new home sales, and consumer confidence, with holiday schedule effects continuing through the next two weeks.
Translation: don't be surprised if rates drift in a narrower range until January data resets the market's rhythm.

Frequently Asked Questions