Idaho Housing Market Update: December vs. November 2025 (+ 2026 Forecast)

The year is officially in the books.

As we closed out 2025, the Idaho housing market gave us one last surprise: Stability. While December is typically a sleepy month for real estate, the data shows that buyers remained active, taking advantage of a dip in mortgage rates to lock in homes before the new year.

If you are wondering whether you should have bought in November or if waiting until now was the right move, the numbers tell an interesting story.

Here is the official breakdown of December vs. November 2025 for Ada and Canyon Counties, plus our exclusive forecast for what to expect in 2026.

Ada County: Holding Strong to End the Year

Ada County, Boise, Meridian, Eagle, and Star, finished 2025 with prices slightly softening from November’s highs, but staying well above last year’s levels. This “cooling” is exactly what we expect during the holidays.

December vs. November Comparison

The Takeaway for Ada County

Prices dipped by nearly $40,000 month-over-month. This is not a crash; it is a seasonal discount. Buyers who shopped in December snagged deals that November buyers missed. With inventory tightening (down to 1,596 active listings), we expect prices to climb back up as we head into Spring 2026.

Canyon County: The Affordability Champion

Canyon County, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, saw a surge in activity in December compared to November, proving that affordable homes are still in high demand.

December vs. November Comparison

The Takeaway for Canyon County

While Ada County slowed down, Canyon County heated up! Sales jumped by 27% from November to December. Why? Because at a median price of $435,000, Canyon County remains the value leader in the Treasure Valley.

The Mortgage Rate Story: A December Gift

One reason for the late-year surge in Canyon County was interest rates. Throughout December, we saw mortgage rates stabilize and dip into the low 6% range.

This “December Dip” gave buyers roughly 5% more purchasing power compared to earlier in the fall. It was the holiday gift many families needed to finally get their offer accepted.

Spotlight: The VA Loan Opportunity

With homes sitting on the market for 52 days in Ada and 61 days in Canyon, sellers are becoming increasingly flexible. This is the “Golden Window” for Veterans.

• Seller Concessions: In December, we saw more sellers agreeing to pay the buyer’s closing costs (often $5,000 – $10,000) just to get the deal done before year-end.
• VA Acceptance: The old myth that “sellers hate VA loans” is dead in this market. A solid VA offer is now being treated as good as cash.

The 2026 Forecast: What Comes Next?

Based on the final 2025 numbers and current economic trends, here is our forecast for the Treasure Valley market in 2026:

1. Mortgage Rates Will Stabilize (But Not Crater)

Experts predict rates will hover in the low 6% range for most of 2026. While we may see dips into the high 5s, waiting for a return to 3% rates is a strategy that will leave you renting forever. Stability is the new goal.

2. Inventory Will Tighten Again

Inventory fell by 16% in Ada County last month. As we head into Spring, supply will struggle to keep up with demand again. This means the “deals” we are seeing right now in January and February will likely disappear by April.

3. “Boring” Price Growth

We forecast a modest 3-4% price appreciation for 2026. This is healthy. It means your home is a safe investment, but you aren’t fighting off 20 cash offers like in 2021.

The Bottom Line: If you are waiting for a crash, the data doesn’t support it. If you are waiting for stability, it is already here.

Ready to see what you can afford in 2026? Connect with us today.

Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 Market

Did home prices drop in December 2025?

In Ada County, yes. The median price dropped to $525,000 from $562,000 in November, offering a seasonal discount. However, in Canyon County, prices actually rose slightly to $435,000 due to strong demand.

What is the prediction for Idaho housing in 2026?

We forecast a stable year with modest price appreciation of 3-4%. Inventory is expected to remain tight, and mortgage rates are projected to stabilize in the low 6% range, creating a balanced but competitive market.

Is now a good time for VA buyers?

Yes. With homes sitting on the market for roughly 2 months (61 days in Canyon County), sellers are highly motivated. They are more willing to accept VA offers and pay for closing costs than they will be in the busy Spring season.

Where are mortgage rates heading in 2026?

Most forecasts predict rates will remain steady in the low 6% range. While slight dips are possible, waiting for a significant drop might cost you more in home price appreciation as buyer demand increases.